CL Permutations

I have done my best to determine different possible scenarios and results.  Best of luck to all! – Except LR who needs to lose ;).

A special thanks to Ginkapo and Kaz who helped with the permutations for groups H and F respectively.

I have linked the the rules and tie-breakers and the group standings for your convienence.

Group A

MJ6987 (9 pts, GD +19) – A win or draw would certainly see him through. He will likely progress anyways as he has the best GD in the group

Optimus (9 pts, -2 GD) – A win or draw will see him through, though a loss will likely see him drop to 3rd or 4th place.

4vets (6 pts, -3 GD) – Is in need of a win to progress. If MJ wins, 4vets will be assure progression with a victory. If MJ loses, 4vets will need his GD to be better than one of MJ or Sarnab.

Sarnab Wazza (6 pts, -14 GD) – Needs to defeat MJ by 17pts to progress if Optimus wins. If Optimus loses, Sarnab will need to finish with a GD better than MJ or 4vets.

Group B

Jinswick (12 pts, +15 GD) – Guaranteed 1st place and progression to the knockout stages

IF Isacki loses to Jinswick, then the winner of the game between Chazza and Boom Shakalaka will progress in second.

IF Isacki defeats Jinswick, he will  likely progress if Boom wins because Isacki has a much superior GD (2 vs -27) but if Chazza wins it is hard to predict who will progress as Chazza’s GD is just 8 better than Isacki’s.

Group C

Evs (12 pts, +44 GD) – Guaranteed progression to the knockout stages. Clinches first place with a win or draw

TW (9 pts, 0 GD) – Progresses to the knockout stages with a win or draw at home. Can finish first with a win if Evs loses and the combined margin of his victory and Evs loss is 44pts. Will finish 3rd and proceed to the Europa League knockouts with a loss to LR.

Lateriser (6 pts, 13 GD)  – Progresses to the knockout stages with a win over TW due to h2h tie-breaker. If he fails to win he will finish third unless Reina Man wins and the combined margin of his loss and Reina Man’s victory is more than 70 pts.

Reina Man (3 pts, -57 GD) – Will finish 4th unless the circumstances above take place.

Group D

Canadian Football (12 pts, +59 GD) – Certain to progress in first place with a win or draw against FunkyAV. Even a loss would likely see CF through. A loss paired with an Old School draw or loss would see CF progress for sure. If Old School wins and CF loses it is likely that both would still progress as they will probably have superior GD to FunkyAV.

Old School (9 pts, +40 GD)  – Will progress if he can match or better FunkyAV’s result given that they split their games against each other but Old School  has a margin of 52 GD over FunkyAV.

FunkyAV (9pts, -12 GD) – Needs to better Old School’s result to progress. It is possible but unlikely that he could match Old School’s result and still progress but that would require the two matches to result in him overturning his 52 point GD margin that he is currently behind.

Shipstonstrev (0 pts, -87 GD)  – Is certain of a 4th place finish given that he has yet to accrue a single point in the group.

Group E

Zep (9 pts, +49 GD) – A win or draw will see him through. A loss paired with a win by Frazek would see him through, assuming he loses by 21 or less to Epic Fail. If both he and Frazek lose, he is likely to progress due to his superior GD.

Frazek (9 pts, +2 GD) – A win or draw will see him through. A loss paired with a win by Zep would see him through, assuming he loses by 29 or less to King Eric. If both he and Zep lose, he will likely finish 3rd, unless Zep loses by 42pts more than him which is unlikely.

Epic Fail (6 pts, +7 GD) – Must win if he is going to progress. A win paired with a Frazek loss will most likely see him through. If Frazek wins however, Epic Fail will need to win by at least 22 points if he wants to progress.

King Eric (6pts, -58 GD) – with a -58 GD, things look rather bleak for King Eric. He needs to win by 30 and see Zep defeat Epic Fail if he is going to progress. If Epic Fail wins, King Eric will most likely need to win by a margin of at least 5o pts which looks rather unlikely this week.

Group F

Valar Morghulis (9 pts, +26 GD) – Valar only needs to win or draw to book his place in the last 16. Having the best GD also means he is likey to top the group if he wins unless Kaz or Eric(1966) register a huge win. The unlikely possibility of him finishing third is discussed below

Kaz (9 pts, +11 GD) – A win or draw would guarantee kaz qualification but he will have to better Valar’s margin of victory by 15 points in order to top the group. A defeat  will most likely mean a 3rd place finish . However, if Valar ends up losing by a margin of 15 points more than kaz, even a defeat would see him through.

1966 (Eric was Born) (9 points, -5 GD) – Eric simply needs to beat Kaz to go through. A draw and he will need Emperikal to do him a favour in his match against Valar. Even a defeat could see him through if Valar’s margin of defeat is 32 points more than his. Otherwise, he will have to settle for the Europa League.

Emperikal (3 pts, -32 GD) – Emerikal only has pride to play for. One win in five matches has guaranteed him the 4th spot. However, he could still decide who goes through.

Group G

El Nino Rules (12 pts, +44 GD) – The reigning champ has already clinched a spot in the next round of the competition.

Eoin (9 pts, +2 GD) – Just 3 points ahead and having lost the previous meeting with Le Gooner, Eoin just needs to avoid defeat if he wishes to progress to the knockout stages.

Le Gooner (6 pts, -9 GD)  – Is in need of an away victory if he wants to progress.

Udit (3 pts, -85 GD) – Is essentially assured 4th place. He would need to defeat ENR and have Le Gooner lose with the margin of those two matches exceeding 94 pts

Group H

Berbilly Gilmore (12 pts, +48 GD)  – The second place team in Spain last season is set to finish top of its CL group with just 1 loss in the competition to date. He faces faces Ginkapo this week and will try to regain pride by avenging his loss in the first leg of his tie against the heroic monkey.

Forca Inter (6pts, 0GD) – The Croatian Mafia Boss will progress if he can win against Aatish and retain a superior GD over than Ginkapo. A draw and a win for Berbilly would also be enough to see him through.

Ginkapo  (6pts, -12GD) – This Kolorov Captaining Monkey must get a win this week if he is to progress. Additionally, either a draw in the other game or a win for Forca plus a 13pt GD swing is required for progression.

Aatish (6pts, -39GD) – A victory will see him through to the knockouts.

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10 thoughts on “CL Permutations

  1. Group H

    Berbilly (12pts, +48GD) – Already qualified and faces Ginkapo this week in order to try and regain pride after losing the first leg of this tie to the heroic monkey.

    Forca Inter (6pts, 0GD) – A win against Aatish and retaining superior GD than Ginkapo would
    guarentee progress in the competition. However, a draw and a win for Berbilly would also be enough.

    Ginkapo (6pts, -12GD) – A win against Berbilly is the minimum requirement. Additionally, either a draw in the other tie or a win for Forca plus a 13pt GD swing would be required for progression.

    Aatish (6pts, -39GD) – Its very simple for Aatish, win to go through.

  2. Group F

    Valar Morghulis (9 pts, +26 GD) – Valar only needs to win or draw to book his place in the last 16. Having the best GD also means he is likey to top the group if he wins unless Kaz or Eric(1966) register a huge win. The unlikely possibility of him finishing third is discussed below

    Kaz (9 pts, +11 GD) – A win or draw would guarantee kaz qualification but he will have to better Valar’s margin of victory by 15 points in order to top the group. A defeat will most likely mean a 3rd place finish . However, if Valar ends up losing by a margin of 15 points more than kaz, even a defeat would see him through.

    1966 (Eric was Born) (9 points, -5 GD) – Valar simply needs to beat Kaz to go through. A draw and he will need Emperikal to do him a favour in his match against Valar. Even a defeat could see him through if Valar’s margin of defeat is 32 points more than his. Otherwise, he will have to settle for the Europa League.

    Emperikal (3 pts, -32 GD) – Emerikal only has pride to play for. One win in five matches has guaranteed him the 4th spot. However, he could still decide who goes through.

  3. Good luck TW 🙂

  4. Thanks for this TW. Great work.

  5. Pingback: Champions League – Matchday 5 Review – Groups E-H by Berbilly Gilmore | FFS UEFA

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